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Ever heard of the Santa Claus Rally? Mike DePue has. He’s the Springfield-Greene County Library’s longtime business librarian, who keeps ahead of issues and trends for library users.
The Santa Claus Rally is a surge in stock prices that frequently, but not always, occurs a few days before and after Christmas.
“In examining the 14-year period from December 21 through December 27, 1991-2004, it was found that the market moved up during that holiday time period 85% of the time by a total of 208 points,” explained DePue.
“This brief time period, generally covering three days before Christmas and two days after, accounted for more than 25% of the total move up the market made in those 14 years. In other words, being in the market less than 2% of the time made up more than 25% of the total move.”
Some serious—and not so serious—explanations have been given for the Santa Claus Rally. My favorites are seasonal joviality (“possibly induced by office party beverages,” adds DePue) and pessimists on vacation.
Other more probable possibilities include year-end tax considerations and/or investment of Christmas bonuses.
DePue points out that “it simply might be the anticipation of something known as the January Effect, another phenomenon in which the first week in January often sees a substantial rise in stock prices, particularly among the stocks of smaller companies. So the Santa Claus Rally and the January Effect may be a single phenomenon.”
The librarians report a steady volume of stock market-related questions throughout the year, although they find investment research peaks from January through April, possibly because of tax considerations.
The popular investment electronic product, Morningstar.com, is available from computers at any of the eight library branches in Springfield and Greene County and, if you have a valid library card, from your home, school or business computer. This database screens a wide range of stocks and mutual funds, researches your current holdings, identifies stocks that meet your stated needs and offers opinions on how your investments work together as a portfolio.
Some people prefer the print versions of Morningstar and another highly respected publication, Value Line Survey. Current and back copies are available at the Library Center, Library Station and the Brentwood and Midtown Carnegie Branches.
Jeanne C. Duffey, community relations director for the Springfield-Greene
County Library District, can be reached at jeanned@thelibrary.org.
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